From a fan’s standpoint, UFC 231 is a fantastic occasion. Concerning betting opportunities, I am feeling lukewarm. But here are my breakdowns of those fights that I’m looking to play. Gilbert Burns vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
Decorated jiu-jitsu winner and second degree black belt, Gilbert Burns, was operating on his striking in recent decades. Training beneath famed Dutch kickboxer, Henri Hooft, Burns is now comfortable wherever the fight occurs.
With his newfound striking abilities, Burns scored strong knockout victories over Jason Saggo and Dan Moret. Unfortunately, opting to bang with Dan Hooker proved to be disastrous and Burns was finished in his final fight. I dropped money believing Burns would grapple — oh well!
Even though a good striker, Burns takes risks defensively and loads on his own shots. Dan Hooker is the kind of fighter that could capitalize on defensive lapses — but I’m not sure Olivier Aubin-Mercier is.
Coming from a judo background, Aubin-Mercier is exceptionally strong from the clinch and hefty from top position. While he’s much more proficient on the feet than he used to be, Aubin-Mercier still lacks the fluidity of somebody that’s a natural striker. He is light on his feet, out and in with his movement and somewhat tentative — but is true when he fires.
While Aubin-Mercier is a jiu-jitsu brown belt, I doubt he wants to go to the mat with Burns. Even the muscle-bound human blanket, Michel Prazeres, refused to dive to the guard of Gilbert Burns — that speaks volumes.
In his last battle, Aubin-Mercier appeared a step behind in the scrambles against Alexander Hernandez and I would anticipate a master of body manipulation such as Gilbert Burns to dominate on the mat as well (although I wish there was more footage of Burns fighting off his back to make a much better assessment).
I think the striking exchanges will be aggressive, but I provide Burns a small edge. Stylistically, this seems tricky for Aubin-Mercier and I can’t predict his approach. Perhaps the Canadian will attempt to control his competitor against the weapon, but minus shooting takedowns?
I do believe Aubin-Mercier is the better athlete and has the superior cardio. Still, I’ll take my chances with Gilbert Burns as a +120 underdog like I think he should be a slight favorite.
Elias Theodorou vs. Eryk Anders
At a middleweight showdown between two fighters with contrasting styles (and personalities), Eryk Anders takes on Elias Theodorou.
A great athletic, Anders is volatile yet has good cardio. Fighting out of the southpaw stance, Anders packs enormous electricity in his left hand but in my opinion, goes head hunting a bit too much. In his last bout, Thiago Santos was prepared for the primary weapon of Anders — which restricted his offensive victory.
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